Abstract
Zusammenfassung. Das Interesse an Kriterien und eignungsdiagnostischen Verfahren zur Auswahl von Studierenden im Rahmen der Hochschulzulassung hat in den vergangenen Jahren im deutschsprachigen Raum stark zugenommen. Während die Deutsche Gesellschaft für Psychologie (1997) Auswahlgesprächen kritisch gegenübersteht, wird der Einsatz dieser Verfahrensklasse von verschiedenen Hochschulvertretern und Bildungspolitikern befürwortet. Zur Bestimmung der prognostischen Validität von Interviews im Rahmen der Hochschulzulassung wird eine Metaanalyse von k = 44 Einzelstudien durchgeführt, die Auswahlgespräche als Prädiktor und Studiennoten als Erfolgskriterium berücksichtigen. Die mittlere korrigierte Validität von Interviews beträgt ρ = .16. Von insgesamt 11 geprüften Moderatoren der Validität erweist sich der Strukturiertheitsgrad der Interviews als bedeutsam. Unstrukturierte Interviews erreichen eine korrigierte Validität von ρ = .11 gegenüber einer korrigierten Validität von ρ = .21 für strukturierte Varianten dieser Verfahrensklasse. Die für strukturierte und unstrukturierte Auswahlgespräche berechneten Validitätskoeffizienten sind generalisierbar. Die inkrementelle Validität von Auswahlgesprächen gegenüber Schulnoten und Studierfähigkeitstests ist gering.
Abstract. Interest in the criteria and psychological assessment procedures that should be used to determine university admission has grown considerably in recent years in German-speaking countries. While the German Psychological Society (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Psychologie, 1997) is skeptical about admission interviews, several university representatives and education policy-makers favor this method. In order to assess the predictive power of interviews in the context of university admission, we have conducted a meta-analysis (k = 44 studies), in which the admission interview is the predictor and exam results are the criterion for academic performance. The mean corrected validity for interviews is ρ = .16. Among 11 validity moderators examined, the degree of structure in the interview proved significant. Unstructured interviews reach a corrected validity of ρ = .11 compared to a corrected validity of ρ = .21 for structured interviews. The computed validity coefficients for admission interviews can be generalized. The incremental validity of interviews to school grades and admission tests is low.
Literatur
* Alvidres, M. D. , Whitworth, R. H. (1981). The development and validation of an entrance examination in a Mexican university. Educational and Psychological Measurement , 41, 503– 509* Balogun, J. A. , Karacoloff, L. A. , Farina, N. T. (1986). Predictors of academic achievement in physical therapy. Physical Therapy , 66, 976– 980* Balogun, J. A. (1988). Predictors of academic and clinical performance in a baccalaureate physical therapy program. Physical Therapy , 68, 238– 242Burton, N. W. , Ramist, L. (2001). Predicting success in college: SAT® studies of classes graduating since 1980. The College Board Research Report , 2001– 2* Calkins, E. V. , Willoughby, T. L. , Arnold, L. M. (1982). Predictors of performance of minority students in the first two years of a BA/MD program. Journal of the National Medical Association , 74, 625– 632Campion, M. A. , Palmer, D. K. , Campion, J. E. (1997). A review of structure in the selection interview. Personnel Psychology , 50, 655– 702Cortina, J. M. , Goldstein, N. B. , Payne, S. C. , Davison, H. K. , Gilliland, S. W. (2000). The incremental validity of interview scores over and above cognitive ability and conscientiousness scores. Personnel Psychology , 53, 325– 3511997). Hochschulzulassung und Studieneignungstests . Göttingen: Vandenhoek und Ruprecht
(1997). Stellungnahme der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Psychologie (DGPs) zu Auswahlgesprächen der Hochschulen bei der Vergabe von Studienplätzen. Psychologische Rundschau , 48, 107– 108
(Drolshagen, S. (1996). Der Stellenwert von Interviews beim Zulassungsverfahren zum Medizinstudium im internationalen Vergleich. In R. Lohölter, K. Hinrichsen, G. Trost & S. Drolshagen (Hrsg.), Das Interview bei der Zulassung zum Medizinstudium (S. 81-130). Stuttgart: SchattauerErez, A. , Bloom, M. C. , Wells, M. T. (1996). Using random rather than fixed effects models in meta-analysis: Implications for situational specifity and validity generalization. Personnel Psychology , 49, 275– 306* Gehrlein, T. M. , Dipboye, R. L. , Shahani, C. (1993). Nontraditional validity calculations and differential interviewer experience: Implications for selection interviews. Educational and Psychological Measurement , 53, 457– 469Goldberg, E. L. , Alliger, G. M. (1992). Assessing the validity of the GRE for students in psychology: A validity generalization approach. Educational and Psychological Measurement , 52, 1019– 1027Harwell, M. (1997). An empirical study of Hedges’s homogeneity test. Psychological Methods , 2, 219– 231Hedges, L. V. , Olkin, I. (1985). Statistical methods for meta-analysis . London: Academic PressHedges, L. V. , Vevea, J. L. (1998). Fixed- and random-effects models in meta-analysis. Psychological Methods , 3, 486– 504Heine, C. , Briedis, K. , Didi, H.-J. , Haase, K. , Trost, G. (2006). Bestandsaufnahme von Auswahl- und Eignungsfeststellungsverfahren beim Hochschulzugang in Deutschland und ausgewählten Ländern . Hannover: HIS-Kurzinformation A 3/2006* Hell, B. (1998). Evaluation des Aufnahmeverfahrens an der Fachhochschul-Studiengänge-Vorarlberg GmbH unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der prognostischen Validität . Unveröffentlichte Diplomarbeit, Universität BonnHell, B. , Schuler, H. (2005). Verfahren der Studierendenauswahl aus Sicht der Bewerber. Empirische Pädagogik , 19, 361– 376Hell, B. , Trapmann, S. , Schuler, H. (2007). Eine Metaanalyse der Validität von Studierfähigkeitstests im deutschsprachigen Raum . Manuskript eingereicht zur PublikationHeyneman, S. P. , Fägerlind, I. (Eds.) (1988). University examinations and standardized testing. World Bank Technical Paper Number 78 . Washington, DC: The World Bank* Hobfoll, S. E. , Benor, D. E. (1981). Prediction of student clinical performance. Medical Education , 15, 231– 236* Holt, T. B. O. , Dunlevy, C. L. (1992). The use of preadmission criteria to predict academic success in a 4-year respiratory care curriculum. Respiratory Care , 37, 439– 443* Hosford, R. E. , Johnson, M. E. , Atkinson, D. R. (1984). Academic criteria, experiential background, and personal interviews as predictors of success in a counselor education program. Counselor Education and Supervision , 23, 268– 275* Höschl, C. , Kozeny, J. (1997). Predicting academic performance of medical students: The first three years. American Journal of Psychiatry , 154, 87– 92Huffcutt, A. I. , Arthur, W. (1994). Hunter and Hunter (1984) revisited: Interview validity for entry-level jobs. Journal of Applied Psychology , 79, 184– 190Huffcutt, A. I. , Conway, J. M. , Roth, P. L. , Stone, N. J. (2001). Identification and meta-analytic assessment of psychological constructs measured in employment interviews. Journal of Applied Psychology , 86, 897– 913Huffcutt, A. I. , Roth, P. L. , McDaniel, M. A. (1996). A meta-analytic investigation of cognitive ability in employment interview evaluations: Moderating characteristics and implications for incremental validity. Journal of Applied Psychology , 81, 459– 474Hunter, J. E. , Schmidt, F. L. (2000). Fixed effects vs. random effects meta-analysis models: Implications for cumulative research knowledge. International Journal of Selection and Assessment , 8, 275– 292Hunter, J. E. , Schmidt, F. L. (2004). Methods of meta-analysis - correcting error and bias in research findings (2nd ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: SageHunter, J. , Schmidt, F. , Jackson, G. (1982). Meta-analysis: cumulating research findings across studies . London: SageJanz, T. (1982). Initial comparisons of patterned behaviour description interviews versus unstructured interviews. Journal of Applied Psychology , 67, 577– 580* Kulatunga-Moruzi, C. , Norman, J. R. (2002). Validity of admissions measures in predicting performance outcomes: The contribution of cognitive and non-cognitive dimensions. Teaching and Learning in Medicine , 14, 34– 42Kuncel, N. R. , Hezlett, S. A. , Ones, D. S. (2001). A comprehensive meta-analysis of the predictive validity of the graduate record examinations: Implications for graduate student selection and performance. Psychological Bulletin , 127, 162– 181Kuncel, N. R. , Hezlett, S. A. , Ones, D. S. (2004). Academic performance, career potential, creativity, and job performance: Can one construct predict them all?. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , 86, 148– 161Latham, G. P. , Saari, L. M. , Pursell, E. D. , Campion, M. A. (1980). The situational interview. Journal of Applied Psychology , 65, 422– 427* Levine, S. B. , Knecht, H. G. , Eisen, R. G. (1986). Selection of physical therapy students: Interview methods and academic predictors. Journal of Allied Health , 15, 151–* Lucas, C. J. , Schmitz, C. D. (1991). A comparison of academic and affective variables as predictors of student-teaching performance. College Student Journal , 25, 518– 531Linn, R. L. , Hastings, C. N. (1984). A meta analysis of the validity of predictors of performance in law school. Journal of Educational Measurement , 21, 245– 259McDaniel, M. A. , Whetzel, D. L. , Schmidt, F. L. , Maurer, S. D. (1994). The validity of employment interviews: A comprehensive review and meta-analysis. Journal of Applied Psychology , 79, 599– 616* McManus, I. C. , Richards, P. (1986). Prospective survey of performance of medical students during preclinical years. British Medical Journal , 293, 124– 127* Meister, K. (2004). Prognose des Erfolgs: Eine Untersuchung der Validität des Auswahlverfahrens der HfB für Studienanfänger . Unveröffentlichte Diplomarbeit, Hochschule für Bankwirtschaft, Frankfurt am MainMendoza, J. L. , Reinhardt, R. N. (1991). Validity generalization procedures using sample-based estimates: A comparison of six procedures. Psychological Bulletin , 110, 596– 610* Meredith, K. E. , Dunlap, M. R. , Baker, H. H. (1982). Subjective and objective admissions factors as predictors of clinical clerkship performance. Journal of Medical Education , 57, 743– 751Mitchell, K. J. (1990). Traditional predictors of performance in medical school. Academic Medicine , 65, 149– 158Morris, J. G. (1999). The value and role of the interview in the student admissions process: a review. Medical Teacher , 21, 473– 481Morrison, T. , Morrision, M. (1995). A meta-analytic assessment of the predictive validity of the quantitative and verbal components of the Graduate Record Examination with graduate grade point average representing the criterion of graduate success. Educational and Psychological Measurement , 55, 309– 316* Munro, B. H. (1985). Predicting success in graduate clinical specialty programs. Nursing Research , 34, 54– 57Novy, D. M. , Kopel, K. F. , Swank, P. R. (1996). Psychometrics of oral examinations for psychology licensure: The Texas examination as an example. Professional Psychology: Research & Practice , 27, 415– 417Peers, I. S. , Johnston, M. (1994). Influence of learning context on the relationship between A-level attainment and final degree performance: A meta-analytic review. British Journal of Educational Psychology , 64, 1– 18Phillips, J. M. (1998). Effects of realistic job previews on multiple organizational outcomes: A meta-analysis. Academy of Management Journal , 41, 673– 690* Posthuma, B. W. , Sommerfreund, J. (1985). Examination of selection criteria for a program in occupational therapy. American Journal of Occupational Therapy , 39, 441– 445* Rahbar, M. H. , Vellani, C. , Sajan, F. , Zaidi, A. A. , Akbarali, L. (2001). Predictability of medical students’ performance at the Aga Khan University from admission test scores, interview ratings and systems of education. Medical Education , 35, 374– 380* Ross, M. W. (1983). Predictive value of selection interviews in success in first-year medicine. Medical Journal of Australia , 10, 423– 424Raju, N. S. , Burke, M. J. , Normand, J. , Langlois, G. M. (1991). A new meta-analytic approach. Journal of Applied Psychology , 76, 432– 446Raju, N. S. , Fleer, P. F. (2003). VG2M: A computer program for conducting validity generalization analysis . Chicago, IL: Illinois Institute of TechnologyRindermann, H. , Oubaid, V. (1999). Auswahl von Studienanfängern durch Universitäten - Kriterien, Verfahren und Prognostizierbarkeit des Studienerfolgs. Zeitschrift für Differentielle und Diagnostische Psychologie , 20, 172– 191Rustenbach, S. J. (2003). Metaanalyse - Eine anwendungsorientierte Einführung. In K. Pawlik (Hrsg.), Methoden der Psychologie. Bern: Verlag Hans HuberSackett, P. R. , Harris, M. M. , Orr, J. M. (1986). On seeking moderator variables in the meta-analysis of correlational data: A Monte Carlo investigation of statistical power and resistance to Type I error. Journal of Applied Psychology , 71, 302– 310Schmidt, F. L. , Hunter, J. E. , Pearlman, K. , Hirsh, H. R. (1985). Forty questions about validity generalization and meta-analysis. Personnel Psychology , 38, 697– 798Schmidt, F. L. , Le, H. (2004). Software for the Hunter-Schmidt meta-analysis methods . University of Iowa, Department of Management & Organization, Iowa City, IASchuler, H. (1992). Das Multimodale Einstellungsinterview. Diagnostica , 38, 281– 300Schuler, H. (2002). Das Einstellungsinterview . Göttingen: HogrefeSchuler, H. , Funke, U. , Baron-Boldt, J. (1990). Predictive validity of school grades: A meta-analysis. Applied Psychology: An International Review , 39, 89– 103Schulze, R. (2004). Meta-analysis: A comparison of approaches . Cambridge, MA: Hogrefe & Huber* Shahani, C. , Dipboye, R. L. , Gehrlein, T. M. (1991). The incremental contribution of an interview to college admissions. Educational and Psychological Measurement , 51, 1049– 1061* Shamai, S. , Gafni, O. , Dekel, Y. (1995). The admission tests to different programs of teachers’ training college as predictors of the students’ success. College Student Journal , 29, 171– 176* Sue-Chan, C. , Latham, G. P. (2004). The situational interview as a predictor of academic and team performance: A study of the mediating effects of cognitive ability and emotional intelligence. International Journal of Selection and Assessment , 12, 312– 320* Tompkins, L. S. , Harkins, C. J. (1990). Predicting academic success in a nontraditional program. Journal of Allied Health , 19, 15– 24Trapmann, S. , Hell, B. , Weigand, S. , Schuler, H. (in Druck) Die Validität von Schulnoten zur Vorhersage des Studienerfolgs - eine Metaanalyse. Zeitschrift für Pädagogische Psychologie ,Trost, G. (1996). Die Bedeutung des Interviews für die Diagnose der Studieneignung. Darstellung der internationalen Forschungsergebnisse. In R. Lohölter, K. Hinrichsen, G. Trost & St. Drolshagen (Hrsg.), Das Interview bei der Zulassung zum Medizinstudium (S. 49-80). Stuttgart: Schattauer* Trost, G. , Piel, P. (1991). Der Aufnahmewettbewerb der WHU - eine Zwischenbilanz. Hochschulnachrichten aus der Wissenschaftlichen Hochschule für Unternehmensführung , 6, 60– 65* Vargo, J. W. , Madill, H. M. , Davidson, P. R. (1986). The pre-admission interview as a predictor of academic grades and fieldwork performance. Canadian Journal of Occupational Therapy , 53, 211– 215Wagoner, N. E. , Gray, G. T. (1979). Report on a survey of program directors regarding selection factors in graduate medical education. Journal of Medical Education , 54, 445– 452Wang, M. C. , Bushman, B. J. (1998). Using the normal quantil plot to explore meta-analytic data sets. Psychological Methods , 3, 46– 54* Walker, J. D. , Killip, D. E. , Fuller, J. L. (1985). The significance of the admission interview in predicting students’ performance in dental school. Journal of Medical Education , 60, 569– 571Wass, V. , Wakeford, R. , Neighbour, R. , Van der Vleuten, C. (2003). Achieving acceptable reliability in oral examinations: An analysis of the Royal College of General Practitioners membership examination’s oral component. Medical Education , 37, 126– 131* Weiss, M. , Lotan, I. , Kedar, H. , Ben-Shakhar, G. (1988). Selecting candidates for a medical school: An evaluation of a selection model based on cognitive and personality predictors. Medical Education , 22, 492– 497Wiesner, W. H. , Cronshaw, S. F. (1988). A meta-analytic investigation of the impact of interview format and degree of structure on the validity of the employment interview. Journal of Occupational Psychology , 61, 275– 290Wright, P. M. , Lichtenfels, P. A. , Pursell, E. D. (1989). The structured interview: Additional studies and a meta-analysis. Journal of Occupational Psychology , 62, 191– 199* Primärstudien, die in die Metaanalyse eingingen.