Gelb oder kein Gelb?
Abstract
Zusammenfassung. In einer Datenbankanalyse wird gezeigt, dass in der ersten Viertelstunde eines Fußballspiels signifikant weniger persönliche Verwarnungen (“gelbe Karten”) ausgesprochen werden als im Rest des Spiels. Neben pragmatischen Gründen (z. B. keine Wiederholungsfouls zu Beginn) erklären wir diesen Effekt als Resultat einer notwendigen Kalibrierung der Schiedsrichter. Nach dem Konsistenzmodell (Haubensak, 1992a) für solche Urteile entwickeln Menschen (Schiedsrichterinnen und Schiedsrichter) zu Beginn einer Stimulusserie (des Spiels) eine Urteilsskala und verwenden diese konsistent (über die gesamte Spielzeit). Diese Urteilsskala muss zunächst kalibriert werden: würden leichte Vergehen zu Beginn als “gelbe Karte” klassifiziert, müssten alle nachfolgenden Vergehen gleicher oder größerer Schwere ebenfalls zu gelben Karten führen. Da aber eine Norm herrscht, persönliche Verwarnungen sparsam einzusetzen, können zu Beginn des Spiels nur wenige gelbe Karten vergeben werden; d. h. objektiv sollte für ein Vergehen zu Beginn mit höherer Wahrscheinlichkeit eine gelbe Karte gegeben werden als dies realiter der Fall ist. Diese Vorhersage wurde in einem Experiment getestet und die Implikationen für die Urteilssituation von Schiedsrichterinnen und Schiedsrichtern werden diskutiert.
Abstract. The analysis of a database revealed that significantly fewer yellow cards are shown in the first 15 min compared to the rest of a soccer game. Alongside obvious pragmatic reasons (e.g., preventing repeated fouls at the beginning of a game), we explain this effect as the outcome of a necessary calibration process. According to the consistency model (Haubensak, 1992a), people (in this case, referees) need to develop an internal judgment scale for such categorical decisions at the beginning (of a game), and then apply it consistently across the whole stimulus set (i.e., the whole game). This scale first has to be calibrated: If a light/moderate misconduct is already classified to the ”yellow card” category at the beginning of a game, each successive misconduct of the same or greater severity will also require a yellow card. However, because the norm is to caution sparingly, few yellow cards can be shown at the beginning. Hence, objectively speaking, the probability of cautioning a misconduct with a yellow card should be greater than it actually is in real games. This prediction was tested and confirmed in an experiment, and the implications for referees’ judgment situations are discussed.
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