Nonlinear Change Models in Populations with Unobserved Heterogeneity
Abstract
When unobserved heterogeneity exists in populations where the phenomenon of interest is governed by a functional form of change linear in its parameters, the growth mixture model (GMM) is useful for modeling change conditional on latent class. However, when the functional form of interest is nonlinear in its parameters, the GMM is not very useful because it is based on a system of equations linear in its parameters. The nonlinear change mixture model (NCMM) is proposed, which explicitly addresses unobserved heterogeneity in situations where change follows a nonlinear functional form. Due to the integration of nonlinear multilevel models and finite mixture models, neither of which generally have closed form solutions, analytic solutions do not generally exist for the NCMM. Five methods of parameter estimation are developed and evaluated with a comprehensive Monte Carlo simulation study. The simulation showed that the parameters of the NCMM can be accurately estimated with several of the proposed methods, and that the method of choice depends on the precise question of interest.
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